Synopsis: Social Determinants of Epidemic Growth

A new network model reveals that social mixing and mobility can determine the areas of a city that are critical in provoking an epidemic outbreak.
Synopsis figure
D. Soriano-Paños et al., Phys. Rev. X (2018)

The containment of infectious diseases is largely determined by our capacity to intervene at the early stage of an outbreak. To be effective, containment measures must selectively target the parts of the population that play a critical role in triggering a disease outbreak. A team of researchers led by Alex Arenas at Rovira i Virgili University, Spain, has found that small changes in social mixing and geographical mobility within a population can dramatically alter the set of subpopulations that are critical for an epidemic onset. This knowledge could be useful in designing optimal disease-containment policies.

The spreading of diseases is typically described using epidemic models in which parts of the population are segregated in spatial patches and allowed to interact via the mobility of individuals between patches. However, these models are often solved within a so-called mean-field approximation, which misses important real-world details. For instance, certain age or socioeconomic groups may have different mobility habits. Arenas and his colleagues have developed a new formalism that treats these groups as multiple layers of a complex population network. Compared to mean-field models, this representation allows a better description of effects that are due to the population’s heterogeneity.

The team applies this theoretical framework to the real urban system of Medellín in Colombia, where six different socioeconomic groups coexist, each with its own mobility and its own distribution over 400 city areas. The authors study how the mixing across different classes and the average mobility of each class influence the propagation of a disease. They find that small changes in these parameters could abruptly change the city areas that spur an epidemic and should be the primary targets of containment actions.

This research is published in Physical Review X.

–Nicolas Doiron-Leyraud

Nicolas Doiron-Leyraud is a researcher at the University of Sherbrooke.


Features

More Features »

Announcements

More Announcements »

Subject Areas

Complex SystemsInterdisciplinary Physics

Previous Synopsis

Fluid Dynamics

Levitating in a Fluid

Read More »

Next Synopsis

Atomic and Molecular Physics

A Sextet of Entangled Laser Modes

Read More »

Related Articles

Focus: Muons Reveal Record-Breaking Thunderstorm Voltage
Geophysics

Focus: Muons Reveal Record-Breaking Thunderstorm Voltage

A thunderstorm probed with atmospheric muons had an electric potential exceeding one billion volts, much higher than values measured previously.   Read More »

Synopsis: The Complex Dance of Two-Faced Oscillators
Complex Systems

Synopsis: The Complex Dance of Two-Faced Oscillators

A ring of “Janus” oscillators—oscillators made from two components with differing natural frequencies—can exhibit myriad synchronization patterns. Read More »

Synopsis: Extending the Kuramoto Model to Arbitrary Dimensions  
Complex Systems

Synopsis: Extending the Kuramoto Model to Arbitrary Dimensions  

The generalized version of a theory describing synchronization in an ensemble shows that coherence arises differently depending on whether the number of dimensions is even or odd.   Read More »

More Articles